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Dec 27, 2010

Trends in primary and secondary real estate markets in 2010

"ASC MIEL" has provided the following summary on the Moscow real estate in the primary market: last month of the year brought no changes from the point of view of volume of supply (this figure is still $ 273). For the full year the volume of supply decreased by 15.7 %.

speaking about established in 2010 picture, you notice the slow, but reliable stabilization of the market of new buildings in the capital, and also to predict the possibility of achieving by the end of next year indicators specific to the pre-crisis period. This opens up vast opportunities for buyers (who can choose the property, not limiting your desires and requirements) and to sellers, who will be able to feel more confident with a stable price range. But everything in order.

the Cost of new buildings in Moscow in December remained almost unchanged. The weighted average offer price has reached 196 800 rubles per sq m, an increase of 2.2 %. In terms of dollars amount is 6352 $/sqm
throughout the year the trends at the Moscow primary real estate market was characterized by stability, the price almost is not out of the price range from -2.6 to +4 %. But the General trend can be called positive: over the past year the cost of new buildings rose 5.6 % in Russian currency and 2.3 % in terms of dollars. Thus, if to compare trends with last year, showing positive dynamics, as growth in 2009 was not as impressive: -2 % (in ruble equivalent) and -8 % (in dollars).

according to analysts, the slight changes in the weighted average prices at the end of the reporting period were due to structural changes: that is, some objects have disappeared, giving place to others. The price of real estate class of business remained near $ 189 600 RUB/sq m, as for medium class and economy class, the price came close to the marks 121 and 107 200 700 RUB/sq. m.

the First half of 2010 can be called the period of implementation of the accumulated demand, as for the second half, there was a reduction in consumer activity. Even autumn, which is usually characterized by increased demand, the expected price dynamics did not bring. Throughout the year we have seen a rise in prices of objects of class business (10.9 %), predominantly in the first half (10.7 percent), because in this period the market was presented with several objects expensive segment. With regard to the annual increase in the value of real estate medium-and ekonomklassa, the change was negligible - only 0.16 and 0.85 %.

According to Vladislav Lutskov, General Director of "ASC MIEL", the absence of a stable price indicators throughout the reporting year can be associated with slowed rates of economic development both worldwide and in Russia. That is why the expectations of significant spikes in the price dynamics until the spring of next year will be meaningless. With regard to the further development of the Moscow market of new buildings, it will be formed under the influence of the development of Russian and world economy. International experts predict a slowdown in the stabilization of the world economy, suggesting that the increase in the value of deals in 2011 in the range of +5-8 %. If the forecast comes true the Ministry of economic development and the economic growth rates in Russia will be significantly increased, the increase in prices can increase up to +10-15 %.

Maria Litinetskaya, CEO "MIEL-new Buildings", adds the comments of Vladislav Lutskov. According to her, this year it was possible to observe a fairly steady increase in consumer demand mainly in new buildings of economy class. The demand for economisti led to a reorientation of developers that focus has now pay it is a budget residential projects.

the December regular real estate market in 2010 surprised by the decrease in activity of sellers. Thus, the proportion of proposals in this period compared to the previous month decreased by 8 points, which is 22 % of the total number of sold objects. As for the number of apartments in the open offer, it fell by 4 %, but down below $ 51 900 units, thus surpassing the price level of the beginning of the year by 12 %.

1.5 points fell, the share of real estate offers a middle and low classes in the past year. As for the other segments over the past year, they remained about in the same range. Prices in ruble equivalent has reached the value 169 of 200 rubles per square meter, having increased in December by 0.7 %. As for the dollar index, it did not change significantly (5477 $/sq m). The threshold characteristics in the pre-crisis 12 % was overcome in the early years, when the cost of real estate sold grew by 10.6 %.

Almost all categories, types and segments of new buildings in Moscow in December are characterized by constant average costs. The maximum increase at year-end was observed among one-bedroom apartments (the most demanded among buyers of the type of housing): the rise reached the level of 11.6 %. The growth of assets of medium of comfort was 10.5 %. If you compare different types of buildings, the maximum increase in prices can be seen in the market of monolithic houses: here the cost increase reached the level of 13.6 %.

Vladislav Lutskov suggests that the past year deserves the title tipping point - the moment when the secondary real estate market of Moscow have finally returned to pent-up demand, which, incidentally, triggered the change in the volume of deals and value of traded objects. The end of the reporting period was marked by the stabilization of the situation, which indirectly confirms restored to its natural demand. The specialists of "ASC MIEL" predict no change at regular Moscow market next year: a month we can expect a small increase in prices, which is unlikely to exceed 0.5-1 %. It's possible that price level by the end of next year will reach pre-crisis levels.

Alexey shlenov, the General Director of "MIEL-Brokerage", says that the past year could be called beneficial to both sides of the real estate market. During this period it was possible to observe the revival of the market and moderate price increases. The buyers were offered a wide selection of different types of real estate, sellers could quite accurately determine the cost of apartments in the sale. In the course of the year was characterised by increased purchasing activity and the rapid revival of mortgage lending, highlighting the interest in the real estate market.


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